Enter your strategy's win rate and risk-reward ratio to instantly compute expectancy, Kelly criterion, probability of ruin, and run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations — no signup required.
For every $1 risked you expect to make $0.65. Over 100 trades, the expected return is $13,000 (130.0%).
The average amount you expect to earn per dollar risked. Positive expectancy means the strategy makes money over a large number of trades. Calculated as: (Win Rate x Reward) - (Loss Rate x Risk).
Gross profits divided by gross losses. A profit factor above 1.0 means the strategy is profitable. Above 1.5 is generally considered strong. The break-even win rate shows the minimum win rate needed for this ratio.
The theoretically optimal fraction of capital to risk per trade. In practice, most traders use Half-Kelly or less to reduce volatility. Going above Kelly dramatically increases the chance of large drawdowns.
The chance that your equity drops below 10% of the starting capital at any point during the simulation. Even profitable strategies can blow up if position sizing is too aggressive relative to the edge.
Runs 1,000 independent simulations of your strategy, each with random trade ordering. The chart shows the range of possible equity paths from worst case (5th percentile) to best case (95th percentile).
The largest peak-to-trough decline in equity during a simulation. The median max drawdown tells you what to realistically expect. Actual drawdowns will sometimes be worse than the median.
Quanthop lets you write strategies in code, backtest on historical data, optimize parameters, and validate with Walk-Forward Analysis.
See Pricing